The Hidden System

**SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE:** These companies aren't run by cartoon villains. They're run by ordinary people responding to incentive structures that reward short-term profit over planetary survival. The people aren't broken. The system is. ## The Science: Undeniable Attribution **Ekwurzel et al. (2017), Published in Climatic Change Journal:** - **90 major carbon producers** identified - **57% of atmospheric CO2 rise** (1880-2010) traced to these companies - **42-50% of global temperature increase** attributable to their emissions - **26-32% of sea level rise** linked to their operations **This isn't speculation.** It's peer-reviewed science using global energy-balance climate models calibrated with historical observations. ## The Companies: Not Villains, But System Participants **Top Contributors Include:** - Saudi Aramco - State-owned - Chevron - Investor-owned - ExxonMobil - Investor-owned - Gazprom - State-owned - BP - Investor-owned - Royal Dutch Shell - Investor-owned - Coal India - State-owned **State-owned or investor-owned. Doesn't matter.** Both operate within the same system incentive structure. ## The Timeline That Matters **Here's the crucial part:** **1980s:** Climate science becomes clear - 1979: US National Research Council publishes definitive climate report - 1980s: Risks scientifically established and well-documented - Companies had internal research confirming the dangers **1980-2010:** What happened next? - **35% of total temperature increase occurred in this period** - **AFTER** the science was clear - **WHILE** companies knew the consequences - **More than half** of all cumulative emissions occurred **The smoking gun:** They knew, and they expanded production anyway. ## But Here's the System Problem **Why did they do it?** **Not because executives are evil.** Because the system is designed to reward: 1. **Quarterly Profit Maximization:** - CEO bonuses tied to short-term stock performance - Board fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder return - No incentive structure for long-term planetary stability 2. **Competitive Market Dynamics:** - If Shell stops, Chevron wins market share - If US companies stop, Saudi Aramco captures market - First-mover disadvantage in a competitive system 3. **Externalized Costs:** - Climate damage doesn't appear on balance sheets - Profits privatized, consequences socialized - System designed to separate benefit from harm 4. **Political Capture:** - Campaign finance allows corporate political influence - Regulatory agencies staffed by industry insiders - System designed for industry to write its own rules **Rational Actors + Broken System = Planetary Destruction** ## The Human Element: Good People in Bad Systems **Consider:** - Engineers working at these companies aren't villains - they're solving technical problems - Executives aren't cartoon evil - they're optimizing within their incentive structure - Shareholders aren't malicious - they're securing retirement through index funds - Workers aren't complicit - they're supporting families **Everyone is acting rationally within the system.** **The system is designed to produce planetary destruction as the optimal rational outcome.** ## The 1980s Knowledge Problem **Internal company documents show:** - ExxonMobil had climate research in the 1970s-80s - Shell had internal reports predicting climate impacts - Many companies understood the science early **Why continue?** Because: - Competitors would capture market share if they stopped - Shareholders would demand explanation for leaving profits - Boards would face lawsuits for not maximizing returns - No system mechanism to internalize external costs **The system made destruction the optimal strategy.** ## The Methodology: How We Know **Advanced Climate Attribution Science:** 1. Track emissions from 90 specific producers (1854-2010) 2. Model atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations 3. Calculate radiative forcing from greenhouse gases 4. Attribute to temperature and sea level changes 5. Account for uncertainty ranges in climate sensitivity **Result:** Can trace specific warming to specific companies with statistical confidence. **This revolutionizes climate accountability.** ## What the Science Means **Before this study:** - Climate responsibility diffuse across "humanity" - Individuals felt guilt about personal carbon footprint - National governments blamed for emissions - Corporate responsibility obscured **After this study:** - Can quantify specific corporate contributions - Legal framework for climate liability possible - Corporate climate accountability enforceable - Reparations framework becomes feasible ## The Solutions: System Redesign **What needs to change isn't people - it's incentive structures:** **1. Internalize Externalities:** - Carbon pricing that reflects true cost - Legal liability for climate damages - Corporate responsibility for full lifecycle impacts **2. Restructure Incentives:** - Board fiduciary duty to include planetary stability - CEO compensation tied to long-term sustainability - Shareholder returns balanced with stakeholder impacts **3. Transform Energy Systems:** - Rapid transition to renewable infrastructure - Public investment in clean energy at scale - End subsidies for fossil fuel production **4. Enable Accountability:** - Climate liability framework in law - Reparations for climate-impacted communities - Corporate climate crime prosecution **The technology for clean energy exists.** The system prevents deployment at scale. ## The Beautiful Irony **The same companies could lead the transition:** - Oil companies have capital and engineering talent - State-owned companies have political will capability - Infrastructure exists for massive energy deployment **They're not doing it because the system still rewards extraction.** **Change the incentive structure, and the same people would build the clean energy future.** ## What This Reveals **People aren't the problem:** - Engineers can build clean energy (they want to) - Workers need employment (clean energy creates more jobs) - Investors need returns (renewable energy is now cheaper) - Communities want stability (everyone fears climate chaos) **The system is the problem:** - Designed to reward quarterly profits over planetary survival - Externalizes climate costs while privatizing extraction profits - Creates competitive dynamics that punish climate action - Legal structures that mandate destruction-as-usual - Political systems captured by extraction industries ## The Urgency **1980-2010 emissions AFTER knowledge:** - **35% of temperature increase** - **13.5% of sea level rise** - **Trillions in climate damages** **Since 2010?** Emissions have continued. We're adding to the problem every quarter. **The system continues rewarding destruction while penalizing solution implementation.** ## The Path Forward **What changes:** 1. **Legal Accountability:** Climate liability becomes real 2. **Incentive Restructuring:** Systems reward sustainability 3. **Energy Transition:** Massive scale deployment of clean energy 4. **Corporate Transformation:** Same companies, different incentives 5. **Democratic Control:** End political capture by extraction industries **The people at these companies aren't broken.** Give them different incentive structures and they'd build the clean energy future. **The system is broken.** It's designed to optimize for short-term profit extraction regardless of long-term planetary consequences. ## Conclusion: Rational Actors, Irrational System **90 companies. 57% of climate change.** Not because they're run by villains. Because we've designed economic and legal systems that make planetary destruction the rational optimal strategy for competitive advantage. **Change the systems. Change the outcomes.** The science is clear. The attribution is proven. The solutions exist. We just need to redesign systems to enable human wisdom instead of incentivizing planetary destruction. **Sources:** - Ekwurzel, B., et al. (2017). "The rise in global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level from emissions traced to major carbon producers." Climatic Change, 144(4), 579-590. - Climate Accountability Institute emissions database - Union of Concerned Scientists climate research - Corporate climate disclosure documents - Climate liability legal framework analysis *The people aren't broken - they're responding rationally to incentive structures. The system is broken - it rewards planetary destruction. We can redesign it to reward planetary flourishing instead.*

Documentary Evidence

Human Impact

The consequences of these hidden systems affect millions of people daily. Understanding the scale helps us recognize the urgency of systemic change.

System Solutions That Enable Flourishing

Sources & Citations